I have to start with an apology for my lack of updates here. I usually check in at least every few months with an update, but this year, after starting hot, it’s been mostly radio silence.
After draft season wound down, I wrote a March 8 post detailing the first Omni results of the year, a March 15 post to break down a particularly Omni-centric day with four points-deciding games across the WBC and UCL, and then a March 23 post updating those results and the wild start we encountered for this year’s Omni season. But I never got around to the midsummer update I typically write, and then as you guys know, I’m usually pretty preoccupied during the fall with the fantasy stuff.
But here we are with a Thanksgiving weekend update, where I’ll attempt to run through everything that’s happened, more or less all year. First off, a couple FAQs. Many of you have inquired about changing the log-in system, and it’s our top priority before next draft season to decouple the site from X/Twitter, which will likely mean moving it over to an email-based log-in.
Additionally, I’ve been asked about the site itself, and the future of Omni. I will readily cop to being worn out by the admin stuff; it’s becoming increasingly tough to commit the necessary hours. Having said that, we are indeed making preparations for a fifth year of operating this un-monetizable time suck of a glorious contest, despite my moaning. I just want to keep expectations low, from both me and my partner, as it’s more about maintaining what’s been built than optimizing it.
The suggestions for feature improvements are appreciated, but nearly all are impractical with our actual resources. One of the things I’ve learned doing this and managing other stuff like my Stealing Signals newsletter, is it’s impossible to remove features you’ve added, because it’s always someone’s favorite thing, so you can’t just try something out and then later put the toothpaste back in the tube. And what happens is eventually the product can get too expansive for the resources such that it can become unviable. And that’s not what we want!
This isn’t any individual’s concern, it’s just an (I think) interesting reflection on how things evolve, because different people want to see different things. Consumers aren’t a mass of agreed-upon opinions, and when you try to accommodate everything — and especially the ideas that are very good! — it can strain limited resources. So our biggest focuses this offseason will be on finishing up past improvements so more stuff can be automated or managed directly, and the site can ideally be more self-sufficient. The focus will not be on adding new features or new elements to the game; if I hear about trading one more time, so help me I will turn this car around.
I kid, and these are not complaints — I invited you here to play! — but merely an attempt to control expectations. I know so many of you have fallen in love with Omnifantasy, like I did a decade ago, and that’s super cool. While this site will essentially be in permanent beta mode, and the goal this year is to limit the time it takes to operate, that’s with a bigger picture in mind, which is longevity.
Let’s get to the updates! As of our last installment, the World Baseball Classic had become the first finalized sport, with fairly balanced results, while the UEFA Champions League and NCAA Basketball tournament were both well underway. As of now, we have it looks like a dozen finalized sports, plus more that are winding down.
One of the resources I pulled together and will reference was an ADP resource for the 16 different Omni Cup drafts, as well as a link to an ADP value calculation for each drafter. By request, I also made the golf and tennis results tables publicly accessible.
I’ll be referring to those Omni Cup ADP figures as I break down results; as we know, late-round picks that score big points and early-round picks that don’t are two of the most impactful results in any fantasy league, and that’s definitely the case in Omnifantasy, so that’s where I’ll be focusing my energy as I attempt to break every sport down as quickly as possible.
NCAAB
Notoriously unpredictable, the NCAA Tournament didn’t let down its reputation this year, perhaps only highlighting it. The top seven highest-drafted NCAAB schools in Omni Cup ADP all failed to score points, while UConn (NCAAB8) wound up the eventual champion, and Texas (NCAAB9) also reached the Elite Eight to secure 20 points.
But there were also a ton of points stolen by undrafted schools. Runners-up San Diego State were not selected in any Omni Cup drafts (though I’m in deeper leagues where they were), while semifinalist Florida Atlantic was not, either. Of the other point-scoring schools, only Gonzaga (NCAAB10) was drafted in all 16 Omni Cup leagues; the other two quarterfinalists, Kansas State and Creighton, were each selected in just two leagues.
In sum, if you picked up NCAAB points, you not only did well, but you also likely gained more on the field than an average sport, as many of your leaguemates likely took zeroes, especially any who used an early-round pick on the sport.
Spring football leagues
I’m just going to rope these two in together, but in neither the XFL or USFL did the top-picked team win the title of the eight-team league, however in both cases it was a top-three selection.
In the XFL, top-picked Houston Roughnecks (XFL1) were semifinalists, upset by the eventual-champion Arlington Renegades (XFL3), who went on to beat the DC Defenders (XFL4) in the title game. The late-round Seattle Sea Dragons (XFL7) were the other semifinalist.
In the slightly more unpredictable USFL, a top team won (Birmingham Stallions, USFL2), but the runners-up were the bigger stories, as the Pittsburgh Maulers (USFL8) were the final-drafted USFL team on average. The other super late option (Michigan Panthers, USFL7) finished as a semifinalist, as did the New Orleans Breakers (USFL4).
Drafters didn’t treat these sports are particularly predictive, generally waiting to select them, which proved wise.
UEFA Champions League
On last writing, the quarterfinal draw for UCL pitted to clear top favorites Man City (UCL1) and Bayern Munich (UCL2) against each other. This is one of my favorite parts of the early Omni season, where we draft UCL teams while they have already reached the Round of 16 of a months-long competition that starts the previous fall, but we don’t actually know their path forward until they advance from the Round of 16 and a blind draw is conducted for the final eight teams.
As it happened, Man City would advance, making Bayern a disappointment with just a 20-point finish, and then Man City would go on to win the UCL for the first time, capturing 80 points.
One of the fascinating parts of that draw was earlier draws had already pitted stronger opponents, which also forced some weaker matchups and longer-odds clubs through. And when the quarterfinal and semifinal draws were conducted, Real Madrid (UCL3) was pitted against Chelsea (UCL7) where the winner would face the winner of Man City and Bayern (Real won, then lost to Man City to finish as a semifinalist for 30).
That left the other side of the bracket for Napoli (UCL4) as favorites to make a finals run, facing AC Milan (UCL11) and then the winner of Benfica (UCL5) and Inter Milan (UCL8). Instead, it was the Milanese clubs that took advantage of weak draws, each upsetting their higher-odds opponents to meet in the semifinal. For drafters of Napoli or Benfica who were hoping for this type of runout with the bracket, the part where their clubs still failed to advance past the quarterfinals was a big blow.
Inter went on to defeat AC Milan in the semifinal, and ultimately lose to Man City to nonetheless finish with 50 points as a crucial later-round pick for those who backed them.
NBA
A typically predictable sport, this year the NBA did look a little more open, and it didn’t disappoint. In Omni draft season, the top three picks were the Boston Celtics (NBA1), Phoenix Suns (NBA2), and Milwaukee Bucks (NBA3), none of whom made it past the semifinals, and the Suns (quarterfinals) and Bucks (first round loss for zero Omni points) didn’t even make it there.
That didn’t mean a total darkhorse won it all, as the Denver Nuggets (NBA4) were still among the overall favorites at draft time, and were on selected with pick 33.9 overall on average. But the runners-up Miami Heat were selected in only one Omni Cup draft — shoutout Glenn Cable, who also took the Nuggets in his Omni draft for a whopping 130 points from the NBA. And semifinalists Los Angeles Lakers were only selected five times, while quarterfinalists New York Knicks were selected in exactly half (8) Omni Cup leagues.
The Philadelphia 76ers (NBA5) and Golden State Warriors (NBA7) rounded out the point-scoring teams as quarterfinalists, and even in a wild NBA year five of the top seven picks reached the quarterfinals and got at least some Omni points.
NHL
Contrary to the NBA, the NHL typically looks unpredictable, and it looked perhaps especially so this year, with nearly all of the favorites at draft time coming from the same conference, in an anomaly unlike anything I’ve seen in my years drafting these leagues. The Boston Bruins (NHL1), Carolina Hurricanes (NHL3), Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL4), New York Rangers (NHL5), and Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL6) made five of the top six picks all coming from the Eastern Conference.
For a contest like Omnifantasy, that should scream attacking things from the Western Conference, with more uncertainty, a weaker path to the championship, and then the potential still being there for the upset and a championship in the final. And wouldn’t you know it, two crazy things happened. First, the team that came out of the Eastern Conference was none of the aforementioned favorites, as the undrafted Florida Panthers (not selected in any Omni Cup leagues) instead beat three of those teams — Boston, Toronto, and Carolina — in a row. Second, and less crazy once you know the first part, a Western Conference team did wind up winning, as the Vegas Golden Knights (NHL8) took down the Stanley Cup.
The top-ranked Bruins lost in the first round to Florida, despite Boston putting up an historical regular season record. The other big winner in the Western Conference was the Dallas Stars (NHL10), who made a semifinal run for 30 points.
Intermission
This is the point where I usually have a summer update written up, as these sports all end by the end of June, and then we typically have a little bit of a lull in results. And for those of you who track the results, you were probably pretty aware of where the standings in your league stood at this point, which more or less represents the halfway point of the Omnifantasy season (once NBA and NHL finish up).
So let’s now figure out what has happened later this summer and into the fall.
PGA
The one sport that is well underway by the just-mentioned “halfway point” is golf, which finishes up in July with The Open Championship. Heading into that tournament, former three-time 80-point overall winner — who was nonetheless undrafted in all 16 Omni Cup drafts — Brooks Koepka was sitting atop the leaderboard thanks to a win at the PGA Championship and a tie for second at the Masters. But top-drafted Jon Rahm (PGA1) overtook him with a tie for second at the British Open, as Koepka failed to find any “golf points” in the final two majors and fell to second in overall Omni scoring.
Rory McIlroy (PGA2) finished third, and Scottie Scheffler (PGA3) finished in a tie for fourth that he lost on a tiebreaker, pushing him down to 20 Omni points. But golf followed it’s typical trend where some of the very top players do finish well, and then the rest often come from nowhere. Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman, and Sepp Straka were all undrafted in Omni Cup leagues, and finished in the points. Viktor Hovland was the other golfer to reach the 20-point plateau, and he was drafted in just one Omni Cup (shoutout Spenser Strickler).
World Cup
I have loved the Women’s World Cup the two other times I’ve played Omni with it included, but this year was a bit of a letdown, mostly due to the timing issues that made it essentially impossible to catch matches. The tournament ran during the heavy fantasy football drafting season, and in the other hemisphere such that people I know who did catch matches in America were getting up in the middle of the night to do so. I remember watching a couple of matches that were on while I was awake, but in a busy work period, I wasn’t able to disrupt my sleep to catch much of Team USA, which was the other part of the letdown, obviously.
Our top-drafted ladies proved you can’t win every championship, as USA (WC1) failed to reach even the quarterfinal and earn any Omni points with their knockout round loss to Sweden (WC6) on penalty kicks. It was Spain (WC3) who would eventually take down the crown over England (WC2), as the other favorites did hold. Germany (WC4) was the other big disappointment, failing to even advance out of the group stage. One fun element of this tournament was it felt like there was increased parity on display, although huge caveat that I’m speaking out of turn and don’t follow the women’s game well enough to make a big claim there.
Sweden finished as semifinalists, as did co-hosts Australia (WC7), who were able to upset France (WC5) on PKs in the quarterfinals. Undrafted Colombia were one of the big surprises, upsetting Germany to advance over them out of the group stage, and then beating another fun upstart in Jamaica in the knockout round since Colombia won their group and earned a bit of a more manageable first-round matchup.
Jamaica had advanced over much more widely-regarded Brazil, while Nigeria advanced over much more widely-regarded Canada, eliminating two of the mid-tier options in the group stage. Japan wound also earn 20 points as a singularly-drafted Omni Cup option (shoutout Josh for being the only Omni Cup drafter to pick them), although — like Koepka in PGA — Japan has a recent history of WWC success and was probably overlooked.
WNBA
The big storyline of the WNBA offseason was the creation of two really strong “superteams,” and the potential eventual showdown for the WNBA Title. Both teams wound up with ADPs in the top six picks overall, so I was kind of hoping for at least one playoff upset so things weren’t so predictable.
But that is how it went, with the Las Vegas Aces (WNBA1) taking the title over the New York Liberty (WNBA2). The semifinalists were at least not the next two highest-drafted teams, as the Connecticut Sun (WNBA5) and Dallas Wings (WNBA6) were more like mid-round options. The Phoenix Mercury (WNBA4) failed to record any points, but the eight point-scoring teams were otherwise all from the top nine highest-drafted WNBA options in a fairly predictable season.
MLB
But if you were after chaos, the MLB had it. Ever since expanding the number of Wild Card teams who can qualify for the postseason, things have gotten quite a bit quirkier in the MLB. This year, both World Series teams came from Wild Card position, and the runner-up Arizona Diamondbacks weren’t even drafted in any Omni Cup leagues, while the champion Texas Rangers were selected just twice (shoutout Michael and seangeorge).
The top-picked Houston Astros (MLB1) did finish as semifinalists, as did the mid-round Philadelphia Phillies (MLB8). The Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB2) and Atlanta Braves (MLB5) were other highly-regarded teams that finished in the points, while the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins were two other undrafted teams that got there.
Both the biggest misses were from New York, with the New York Yankees (MLB3) and New York Mets (MLB4) as major disappointments that each missed the playoffs.
NASCAR
NASCAR has traditionally been pretty predictable, but one of the clear changes heading into this year was shifts in odds near the top, where a lot of younger names were in the running, as the old guard has mostly aged out. Guys like Martin Truex, Jr. (NASCAR10), Brad Keselowski (undrafted), and Kevin Harvick (NASCAR13), who used to be annual top picks, were well down the list, while Denny Hamlin (NASCAR3), Kyle Busch (NASCAR4), and Joey Logano (NASCAR5) were hanging on to past glory with lofty draft positions. If it’s not clear what I mean, for years in NASCAR that group of names and maybe a couple more were the top eight or so drafted Omni drivers every year, so the fact that there were so many newer names who haven’t actually done a lot near the top of the odds and ultimately ADP lists meant we were in for some potential upheaval.
Of all those “old guard” names, only Truex, Jr. and Hamlin scored points, and each was eliminated before the final race, securing 20. Top-drafted Chase Elliott (NASCAR1) also didn’t count as a quarterfinalist, while Kyle Larson (NASCAR2) eventually finished second for 50 points.
It was Ryan Blaney (NASCAR7) who won the 80 points, while Christopher Bell (NASCAR8) and William Byron (NASCAR9) each secured 30 points as “semifinalists.” That actually made the hit rate for the highest-ranked newer names pretty high, arguing that while some of the older drivers’ odds showed some deference to their past achievements, the market did pretty accurately identify who the next best up-and-coming drivers were.
That said, Chris Buescher was an Omni Cup undrafted driver, while Tyler Reddick was taken in just seven leagues, and both earned 20 points.
Ongoing leagues
That’s it for the completed leagues, while there are a few ongoing leagues. We took the F1 out of the Omni Cup, but it’s still on the site, so for those of you who use that, the final results will be updated after this weekend’s final race. Top pick Max Verstappen has won nearly every race and clinched the overall title a long time ago, while the other top options have mostly gone according to expectation.
The MLS is into the quarterfinals and those points have been added to leagues. It has been its typically unpredictable self as a league, but the top two highest-drafted teams did advance this far and earn points. New York City FC (MLS3), LA Galaxy (MLS4), and CF Montreal (MLS5) are all eliminated already, though, and the undrafted Columbus Crew, Houston Dynamo, Sporting KC, and Orlando FC are all still alive and kicking.
There were 16 different MLS teams picked in at least one Omni Cup league — out of 29 total teams in the league — so four of the 13 that weren’t picked have advanced to the quarterfinals, a pretty hilarious hit rate. For you Underdog enthusiasts, the MLS is your #ScrollDown league for Omni.
Men’s and Women’s tennis
I forgot about the tennis leagues, which are also ongoing, but deserve their own breakdowns. You can find the current results here, where we still have January’s Australian Open to go.
On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic (ATP1) was threatened by Carlos Alcaraz (ATP2) after the youngster’s upset at Wimbledon, but Djokovic rebounded to win the US Open and now holds a commanding lead heading into the Australian, given he was the runner up at Wimbledon and Alcaraz has failed to reach the final in either of the two tournaments Djokovic won.
Beyond them, Rafael Nadal (ATP3) is unfortunately probably a zero this year, while Daniil Medvedev (ATP4), Casper Ruud (ATP9), and Alexander Zverev (ATP7) sit in the next most-favorable positions.
The women’s side has been more chaotic, and thus more fun. Top-drafted Iga Swiatek (WTA1) does currently hold the top spot, but only on a tiebreaker with Aryna Sabalenka (WTA2). And then only one “tennis point” behind is another tie between Coco Gauff (WTA6) and Marketa Vondrousova, who was not even in the system as of draft time because I didn’t go deep enough into the odds to make her a draftable option.
If any of those four women takes down the Australian Open, they will clinch the 80 Omni points this year. Additionally, Karolina Muchova (undrafted) and Ons Jabeur (WTA5) are both only three “tennis points” behind the leaders, and an Australian Open win for either of them would at minimum trigger a tiebreak for the top overall Omni spot. I hadn’t calculated all the tiebreak scenarios, but looking at it real quick it appears Muchova controls her own destiny, too, making it five women who could take the Omni top spot with an Australian title (she would win a tiebreak over Swiatek or Sabalenka if either was runner-up, I believe).
Jabeur would I think create an unbreakable tie and split points between first and second if she wins and Swiatek is second, but if anyone else is second Jabeur would take the 80.
In other words, women’s tennis is all coming down to the Australian, and there’s a ton of ballgame left to see what happens there.
Alright! That’s all I have for today. The only other sports I didn’t mention, I believe, are the NFL and college football, and the NCAAF is very near to be locking in the final four teams who will all guarantee themselves at least 30 points, while the other four spots will be determined by the final AP poll (top four non-CFP teams in final AP rankings after the bowl games, but they cannot steal 30 points from CFP teams even if a CFP team falls out of the top four; I can’t wait for the expanded playoff to simplify this sport for Omni purposes).
Until next time!
If anyone's starting a new OMNI fantasy league I'd be happy to join