I didn’t intend to write this much about Omnifantasy here in March, but it’s been a wild ride just since drafts finalized a few weeks ago. We knew having the World Baseball Classic in March was going to get us going faster than ever, but the way it played out, and then a few outcomes in Champions League and college basketball, has been pretty crazy.
Last week, I wrote several hundred words breaking down ways the World Baseball Classic could take a sideways turn for Omnifantasy, mostly centered around how the knockout round could set up for some high-profile teams to face well before the final. Near the end of that post, I mentioned a few things about the Champions League, including how they redraw each round and a similar possibility could arise there, which could already shake up a UCL knockout round that has seen some high-profile clubs draw each other and a few sides with lower expectations get weaker paths through.
And on the UCL front, the craziness with the draw did occur. But first, let’s recap WBC, which finished up Tuesday with a final I haven’t stopped hearing about. It’s so cool so many of you really got into that tournament as a result of Omnifantasy — a refrain I heard several times — and then really enjoyed it. Though there were a couple unfortunate injuries, it really was an incredible spectacle and you could tell how bad each nation wanted the title.
World Baseball Classic results
The headline for the final WBC results is the Dominican Republic — drafted on average as the top WBC team in the 16-league Omnifantasy Cup at an overall Average Draft Position of 6.1 in the first round — did not advance out of the Group of Death and earned zero points. Venezuela (WBC5) earned the early win over DR, and then Puerto Rico (WBC4) were able to knock them off in a win-or-go-home game to close out the group, allowing both Venezuela and Puerto Rico to advance out of the stacked group.
That also meant that the knockout round bracket set up fairly inconspicuously, with United States (WBC2) and Japan (WBC3) on opposite sides of the bracket. As anyone paying attention knows, they ultimately met in a final that ended with MLB teammates and former MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout — captains of their respective WBC sides — facing off in a one-run game, with Ohtani striking out Trout to end the tournament. But it wasn’t without drama to get there.
In the quarterfinals, USA needed an eighth-inning home run from Trea Turner to erase a late two-run deficit to beat Venezuela. They rolled over Cuba (WBC7) 14-2 in the semifinals, in what was one of the few drama-free games of the knockout round.
On Japan’s side of the bracket, Mexico (WBC8 in ADP) had to come from behind to beat Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. They’d given up four runs in the top of the first, scratched back two by the seventh, and then put up three in that frame to eventually win 5-4.
Of eight WBC teams that were drafted in all 16 Omni Cup leagues, Mexico were drafted the latest on average. Behind them, the next most frequently drafted team was the Netherlands in just 10 drafts. Cuba went just ahead of Mexico, and they were by ADP essentially the last two teams in a tier of eight solid options. Both of them paid off the patient WBC drafter in Omnifantasy by making the semifinal.
But Mexico very nearly took that run straight to the final. In a semifinal with eventual champion Japan, they led 3-0 through the seventh-inning stretch, a point from which runs started being scored nearly every half inning. In the bottom of the seventh, Japan got a game-tying three-run homer from recent Red Sox signing Masataka Yoshida. Mexico answered with two runs in the top of the eighth inning, retaking a 5-3 lead, before Japan got one back in the bottom of the eighth to make it 5-4. After Mexico failed to score in the top of the ninth, Japan was down to their final outs. But they were undeterred, with their captain Ohtani leading off the inning with a double, Yoshida drawing a walk, and Munetaka Murakami hitting a walk-off double into the gap to score both of them for a 6-5 win that booked Japan’s place in the final.
I thought that win was especially impressive because I’d sort of soft faded Japan on the idea that their group stage and quarterfinals matchups were all in Tokyo, but they needed to travel all the way to Miami with just a couple of days off to play the final two games. Cuba was the other team who advanced out of Asia, and they came out flat in their matchup stateside. Among the four semifinalists, USA and Mexico had both traveled from the Phoenix group down to Miami, but that is obviously a quicker trip than what Japan endured.
At any rate, Japan pulled out the come-from-behind win that denied late-round Omni pick Mexico a shot at the 80 points, and then Japan went on to beat USA 3-2 in an epic final. In the end, the second- and third-drafted WBC teams met in the final, the other semifinalists were drafted in every Omni Cup league but were slight darkhorses, and we got a pair of much later options in Australia and Italy who snuck into the quarterfinals and earned 20 Omni points. Neither of those two were drafted in the Omni Cup, but they certainly were in deeper leagues. (I wound up with five Omnifantasy leagues this year, and I’m happy to say I had exposure to both, simply through digging into the format and recognizing they had better paths to advancing out of weaker groups than some other longshots.)
Champions League draw
Not much has happened in actual gameplay with the UEFA Champions League since we last spoke, with the favorites finishing off their paths to the quarterfinal in the final two Round of 16 matches. But the big news came off the pitch — the random quarterfinal draw was conducted last Friday, and it was a doozy.
Here’s what I wrote about this in the last edition of this Omnifantasy newsletter:
“With sides like Manchester City and Bayern Munich moving on, but also weaker clubs like both of those Milan sides and Benfica, things can go a lot of ways. You’re probably looking at clubs like Chelsea and both Napoli and Real Madrid — if they move on today — as somewhere in the middle, hoping to draw a matchup with a Milanese club or Benfica, and dreading Man City or Bayern as potential opponents. It’s of course possible Man City and Bayern draw each other…”
As it happened, the clear top two favorites Man City (UCL1) and Bayern Munich (UCL2) did indeed draw each other. This comes after four of the top sides drew each other in the Round of 16, with Real Madrid (UCL3) eliminating Liverpool and Bayern eliminating Paris Saint-Germain, which had already thinned out the ranks among the favorites in the betting market when Omnifantasy launched back in early February.
In addition to the knowing Man City and Bayern will be facing in the quarterfinals — and thus only one will be advancing — we also got a matchup between the aforementioned Real Madrid and Chelsea (UCL7), as Real continues to draw solid premier league competition after eliminating Liverpool. This has left open the other matchups to be much more winnable, with upstart Napoli (UCL4) — in their first ever UCL quarterfinal, but with a strong side running away with their domestic league and who have legit odds to take down the UCL — being the biggest beneficiary of last week’s draw.
Napoli match up with Italian rival AC Milan (UCL11), who are far behind them in the Serie A table and the odds say aren’t really on Napoli’s level. Meanwhile, Portuguese side Benfica (UCL5), who looked like a high-floor pick in Omnifantasy season thanks to a weak Round of 16 draw, also benefitted with another solid matchup against the third Serie A club in the quarterfinal, Inter Milan (UCL8).
Additionally, the draw for the semifinals was already conducted last Friday as part of the quarterfinal draw. And wouldn’t you know it — the winners of the Man City-Bayern and Real Madrid-Chelsea ties are set to square off in the semifinal. What this all means is that one of Napoli, Benfica, Inter Milan, or AC Milan is a lock to reach the UCL final this year, which will be a coup for those Omnifantasy drafters. Meanwhile, only one of the top three drafted options can make the final, and one of the top two is going out with just 20 points. Will that be Man City continuing their long run of underwhelming performances? Or will they finally step up to their promise and take down Bayern? Should be exciting.
March Madness
The third sport in question has of course been college basketball, with the NCAA tournament well underway. There have been upsets, as always, with Kansas (NCAAB2), Purdue (NCAAB4), Arizona (NCAAB6), and Baylor (NCAAB7) as the four highest-profile zeroes in Omnifantasy thus far.
Starting today and through tomorrow, winners who book their tickets to the Elite Eight will earn 20 Omnifantasy points, with the weekend regional winners into the Final Four earning 30, and an 80-point champion eventually crowned Monday, April 3.
While there have been upsets, each of the Sweet 16 matchups contains at least one team who was among the 22 options drafted in the Omni Cup. The two matchups with the most potential to “steal” points are Kansas State (NCAAB10, but drafted in just 2 of 16 leagues) versus Michigan State (undrafted) and Creighton (NCAAB15, but also drafted in just 2 of 16 leagues) versus Princeton (undrafted).
Several more undrafted teams could steal points with upsets this round, though, including San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Xavier, and Arkansas. The highest-drafted teams remaining are perhaps who you’d expect, including Houston (NCAAB1), Alabama (NCAAB3), and UCLA (NCAAB5).
It should be a fun weekend watching March Madness, and there’s a ton more Omnifantasy craziness coming. Until next time!