On the eve of the NCAA Tournament, which will feature plenty of results — and upsets — through the weekend, the World Baseball Classic and Champions League schedules have aligned for a big day today. There have also been some wild outcomes already booked that I wanted to hit on, so let’s start there.
World Baseball Classic
I didn’t get a chance to break down the various sports this year, but the WBC brought a cool format for Omni consideration. That’s because the 20-nation field was broken into four groups, with the top two from each group advancing directly to the quarterfinals, which is of course the point-scoring plateau for Omni.
This meant there was an edge to be had by digging into the groups a little bit, and given the way the groups laid out — very lopsided with a clear Group of Death and then uncertain situations elsewhere — we knew there would be some surprising point-scorers and also at least one top pick likely being eliminated with no Omni points.
The two groups whose round robins were being played in Asia started a little earlier, and featured weaker fields. When I first pulled odds for this Omnifantasy season in early February, the top team by futures odds in Pool A was Cuba, but they were seventh overall in the contest. Three of the six teams ahead of them were all from Pool D, the Group of Death. Given the structure of two teams advancing from each pool, this meant that at least one of the top six favorites was guaranteed to not advance from the group stage, and that two teams from seventh or lower would be advancing from Cuba’s group.
The next two closest nations to Cuba in odds were Netherlands and Taiwan, with Italy and Panama having longer odds, but feeling live to earn points for those who were looking at late-round plays. As it played out, Cuba lost to the Netherlands in the group’s opening game, then also lost their second matchup to Italy in extra innings to fall to 0-2 with only four total games to be played. Cuba looked done, and meanwhile Panama had also upset Taiwan in their first matchup, so Pool A looked like it could be completely chaotic.
The one team off to a strong start was the Netherlands, who dispatched Panama in their second game to get to 2-0. And yet, by the end of group play, Cuba had won the pool and advanced, while the Netherlands were out. The string of results required for this to occur was crazy, and it meant that ultimately all five teams in the group finished 2-2. That meant the head-to-head tiebreaker was of no use, and the next tiebreaker was runs allowed (as an aside, I thought this tiebreaker sucked, but then I thought about it more and it made sense they didn’t want to use runs scored or run differential because they didn’t want teams running up the score on weaker opponents, which is one of those ungentlemanly things in baseball’s unwritten rules, so runs allowed must have been the simplest tiebreaker that didn’t create any sportsmanship questions).
Anyway, Netherlands lost to Taiwan, and then to Italy in the final game of group play. By that point, Italy had lost two straight to Taiwan and then Panama, so Italy had gone from starting 1-0 with an upset over Cuba that put them in great position, to falling to 1-2 and looking like they had no hope, and then eventually finishing their roller coaster with not just a win over Netherlands but a 7-1 win that allowed them to advance on the runs allowed tiebreaker by just 2 runs (i.e. they needed to beat Netherlands by at least 4, and did so).
Taiwan, the hosts, had lost to Panama is their first game, but had come back to beat both Italy and the Netherlands in their next two, and they — like Netherlands — entered their final game with a 2-1 record and in control of their own destiny. But Cuba knocked them off, like Italy knocked off Netherlands, and the whole group was flipped on its head on that final day, allowing Cuba and Italy to advance. Crazy outcomes all around, and Cuba — a popular pick as a solid bet to advance — has since advanced to the semifinals this morning, which will take place in a few days’ time back in the United States.
Meanwhile, compared to Pool A, Pool B looked a lot more straightforward. Japan were the overwhelming favorites, but South Korea were the heavy second favorites to advance — pre-tournament, one book had them at -900 to move on from the group stage, with Japan as even heavier favorites. This group looked if not etched in stone than at least written in pen.
And yet, it was another very interesting dynamic, because while there were two overwhelming favorites, there were also two clear also-rans (China and the Czech Republic), with Australia fitting in the middle as the only other real threat. That meant that if Australia could somehow beat one of Japan or South Korea, they would be in a unique spot because they didn’t necessarily have strong teams to worry about throughout their pool like the upset victors in Pool A did. Instead, Australia would then just need to beat two pretty poor teams and they could finish 3-1 and likely advance.
And that’s exactly what they did. In the first game of that group, Australia pulled the upset on South Korea, 8-7. That game looked potentially massive — as long as South Korea didn’t then upset Japan, it meant that Australia controlled their own destiny if they could just beat China and Czech Republic. Both China and Czech Republic proved unable to pull any upsets — they went a combined 0-6 against the top three teams in the group, losing by at least 4 runs in each game. And Japan beat South Korea (and also Australia), moving on with a perfect 4-0 record, while Australia got the second spot while finishing 3-1 and South Korea was eliminated at 2-2. Baseball is a high-variance game, and in such a lopsided pool like this, it seemed very possible that which team would advance could come down to a single contest, which many who drafted Australia were probably banking on.
The two groups taking place in the States — one in Arizona and one in Florida — started a few days later, and are on to their final day of games today. Those groups have not been without their drama, either. Pool C features the United States, one of the overall favorites, and had Mexico as a solid second favorite but with Canada and Colombia as potential threats.
In the first game of that group, Colombia upset Mexico, which looked huge. But where that upset differed from the magnitude of Australia’s win over South Korea to open Group B was the strength of the rest of the group. Colombia couldn’t expect to coast the rest of the way, with even the fifth-best team in the group, Great Britain, looking better than either China and Czech Republic, who made up the bottom of Group B.
And that proved to be an issue for Colombia, who fell to Great Britain 7-5 in their next matchup, and then also to Canada. So despite their huge win to open the group, they now sit at 1-2 with only the United States left on their schedule, and are likely to be eliminated. Meanwhile, Mexico bounced back and did what South Korea couldn’t do in their matchup with Japan — they went and beat the best team in their group after their upset loss, knocking off USA in their second game. Last night, they went on to beat Great Britain in a tight 2-1 affair, and now sit at 2-1 with just Canada left on the schedule. Apart from beating Colombia, Canada has beaten Great Britain and lost to USA, leaving them also at 2-1 before that head-to-head matchup with Mexico today that is a win-and-you’re-in matchup (technically, the loser could also advance if Colombia upsets USA, but in all likelihood it’s do-or-die).
So despite their opening loss, Mexico has clawed back to control its own destiny. Canada, meanwhile, has set themselves up for their one big shot, in a game they likely circled from the beginning — they didn’t need to beat USA, just finish second to them, so getting to 2-1 going into this Mexico matchup is likely exactly where they’d hoped to be. It’ll be a big matchup at 3 pm ET.
And that only brings us to Pool D, the Group of Death, where we were sure one team of high renown would be eliminated. Dominican Republic were the favorites, and the favorites for the whole contest, with Puerto Rico starting as the second favorites in this group. But as the contest neared and some players were forced to drop out, a funny thing happened. Venezuela’s odds shortened, and they caught up to and eventually passed Puerto Rico.
Then when the tournament started, Venezuela backed up that late hype on their odds, knocking off the Dominican Republic in their first game, then beating Puerto Rico in the next. They’ve since gone on to beat also-ran Nicaragua in their third matchup, and have clinched a spot in the next round without having to win their final game against Israel, which is taking place now.
Meanwhile, Both the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico have dispatched both Nicaragua and Israel, eliminating both of those nations before today’s contests. After having both lost to Venezuela, that set them up on a crash course for their final group game today, at 7 pm ET, with both sitting at 2-1 and the winner moving on with the loser going home.
This means a few crazy things could occur. The first is if it is Puerto Rico who advances, the Dominican Republic will have failed to earn any points at all as the top-drafted WBC option by Omni Cup ADP.
The second is slightly more complex. The quarterfinals matchups are the Pool winner vs. the Pool runner-up for Pools A and B and then Pools C and D (i.e. the Asian pools pairing up and the American ones as well). But the bracket isn’t set up with two “sides” — once those quarterfinals matchups are complete, all four semifinalists will converge on Miami, and then the matchups will cross over (i.e. the final two teams from the Asian pools will not meet in the semifinals, but rather one will play one from the American pools, and the other will play the other).
What this meant was that if both the Dominican Republic and USA — the top two drafted Omni Cup teams — won their pools, they would not be able to meet until the finals. Where we sit now, though, is that with the Venezuela already having locked up the top seed in Pool D by virtue of having the head-to-head tiebreaker on both Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, that matchup will be for the right to face the Pool C winner in the quarterfinals. That means that if the Dominican Republic advances, we could be set up with a powerhouse quarterfinals matchup between them and USA.
Of course, we might still miss that outcome as well, depending on the result of the Mexico-Canada matchup. Because Mexico beat USA head to head, they would go on to win Pool C with a victory today. If Canada wins, however, USA would go on to win Pool C, assuming USA defeats Colombia. In short, if you give all the favorites the victories today, you’re left with both the Dominican Republic and USA finishing second in their groups, and therefore still missing that high-octane quarterfinal matchup.
If the matchup does come to fruition, it will of course have huge Omnifantasy implications, as it will prevent one of those top picks from scoring more than 20 points, and will weaken the path for teams like Japan as they try to advance. As I mentioned, Cuba already beat Australia today to earn a spot in one semifinal matchup, and what’s so wild about all of this is it’s possible that semifinal is against a team like Canada (that would require Canada to win today, and also upset a good Venezuela team, so that’s unlikely; still, given where Cuba was after two games at an 0-2 record and looking like they were massive underdogs to even get out of their group stage, it’s crazy how this has all played out where they could wind up with an easy matchup on their way to the final).
If the USA does win Group C and face Dominican Republic, the winner of that matchup would line up to face Japan, should they dispatch Italy. So we could be in for an overwhelmingly loaded couple of games even before the final. Should Mexico beat Canada and the USA also advance, though, this all tends to work out in USA’s favor, as they’d miss both the Dominican Republic and Japan, and would be lined up to play Venezuela and then Cuba (Venezuela, for their part, is set up very nicely as well).
That was a long explanation, but it’s been a fast and fun tournament, with a lot of twists and turns that felt like a fun thing to discuss.
Champions League
Over in the Champions League, things are a little more straightforward, as second legs of the Round of 16 ties resumed again yesterday with Manchester City making a statement that they wouldn’t fall victim to yet another disappointing upset loss in the Champions League by beating Leipzig 7-0 after a 1-1 first leg to advance on aggregate, 8-1. Meanwhile, Inter had a 1-0 lead over Porto from their first leg, and those teams played to a 0-0 draw — the same result AC Milan earned against Tottenham last week after their 1-0 win in the first leg, and both Milan sides have advanced on 1-0 aggregate scores after those scoreless second matches.
Today marks the final two matches to close the book on the eight quarterfinalists, with Napoli looking to hold onto their 2-0 lead over Frankfurt, and Real Madrid up big, 5-2, after their wild first leg comeback against Liverpool. Both of those matches are at 4 pm ET. Come Friday, a draw will be held to determine the quarterfinal matchups, which is always big for Omnifantasy much in the same way I described the WBC paths being huge above.
With sides like Manchester City and Bayern Munich moving on, but also weaker clubs like both of those Milan sides and Benfica, things can go a lot of ways. You’re probably looking at clubs like Chelsea and both Napoli and Real Madrid — if they move on today — as somewhere in the middle, hoping to draw a matchup with a Milanese club or Benfica, and dreading Man City or Bayern as potential opponents. It’s of course possible Man City and Bayern draw each other, which would be much like what I described above potentially happening with the USA and Dominican Republic in the WBC.
So that’s where we sit today, with four big matchups to keep an eye on, and then a whole weekend of NCAA Tournament madness. What a time to be a sports fan!
I probably won’t check in again for at least a few weeks, perhaps after the NCAA Tournament, at which point we’ll have results from both the WBC and college basketball, and we’ll be staring down those Champions League quarterfinals matchups, as well as events like the Masters in golf and the NBA and NHL playoffs. Until then, good luck with your Omni teams!