Omnifantasy mega-update: We're halfway home
Four sports have finalized since we last checked in
What a stretch of sports! The last few months have been incredible, between a wildly exciting NBA Playoffs, a European Football Championship that had me hooked for a month, an emergence to the top tier in PGA, and a repeat champion in NHL.
It’s been nearly two months since I last did a full Omnifantasy update, so we’ll have plenty to cover today. I hope you’ve been following along to the wildly entertaining early Summer period we’ve had, but if not I’ll have the full recap here.
At this point, we’re roughly halfway through the Omni calendar. Six sports are finalized, and we also have two tennis majors under our belts with the US Open and next January’s Australian left to finish out the Omni year. The site is updated with those results, and we’ll get an expected points update on there as well for sports like MLB, NFL, WNBA, and MLS now that there’s some down time with fewer results rolling in over the next couple of months. I’ll save discussion of those odds shifts for another day, though, because we have a lot of really interesting results to cover.
PGA
Last we chatted, I noted that a three-way tie atop the PGA leaderboard was unlikely to be close to enough points to win the sport, and that the final two tournaments were going to be key. Over those final two tournaments, Jon Rahm established himself as a first-time major winner at the US Open and went on to take down the overall 80 points for golf.
Somewhat surprisingly, the three golfers who had each won one of the first three events and failed to score a point in the other two all went on to finish without another point. That three-way tie held, but along with Rahm three other golfers passed that logjam in overall points, dropping winners Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, and Phil Mickelson down to the 20-point plateau for their overall finish.
Here were the final results:
Because three of the winners failed to score in any of the other tournaments, both Louis Oosthuizen and Brooks Koepka were able to sneak into the top four. Oosthuizen closed with top-three finishes in each of the final three majors, taking an outright runner-up at the US Open, tying for second at the PGA Championship, and tying for third (with Rahm) at the Open Championship.
I’ve often wondered whether we’ve settled on the right scoring system for golf, and you definitely want to reward wins above all else because that’s the nature of the overall contest. At the same time, what happened with Oosthuizen and to a lesser extent Koepka (where they finished top four without a win) is unlikely to ever result in an overall golf winner. And I kinda like Oosthuizen finishing with an overall runner-up given he placed top-three in three separate events, especially given it was a year where three of the tournament winners did absolutely nothing else. In some ways, Oosthuizen makes perfect sense as this year’s runner up, as his seriously competing at but not winning three different majors was a big 2021 storyline. In all the team sports, the runner up is obviously some team that got frustratingly close.
NBA
The NBA playoffs were wild, and a big narrative certainly became superstar injuries, but ultimately we were treated to a really entertaining Finals. Back in February, I talked through past finishes in relation to January and February futures odds for the various sports as a way to consider Omnifantasy draft strategy. In that piece, I noted “The top-drafted NBA team has finished as either the champion or runner up in each of the six years we’ve done this, while the other NBA Finals contender has also been a top-six pick in the sport.”
Traditionally, NBA has been one of the most predictable sports in the futures market around draft time, but that’s not how it played out this year. The Lakers had the second-highest ADP of any Omnifantasy pick as the NBA1, and they finished without any Omnifantasy points after losing in their first-round series with the Suns. The Nets and Clippers were the next two highest-drafted NBA teams, and while the Nets fell in a tough Eastern Conference Semifinals to the eventual champion Bucks in a series that was impacted by injuries, the Clippers advanced to the Western Conference Finals by coming back from down 2-0 to win four straight despite a major injury of their own to Kawhi Leonard. It was fascinating to see the Clippers go from probable Western Conference favorite with the Lakers out to suddenly being a pretty big dog in their series with the Jazz, to overcoming the underdog status to partially make good on their original draft expectations.
A similar thing occurred in the Finals, where the Bucks were underdogs to the Suns both entering the series and especially after falling down 2-0. Milwaukee was on average the NBA4, meaning the fourth highest-drafted NBA team in Omnifantasy, but they very nearly fell in a fantastic Game 7 against the Nets two rounds before the Finals, and then they overcame long odds against the Suns to take down the crown. Seeing that pick eventually pay off was a wild ride with huge expected points swings that I know from talking to some Bucks backers was a lot of fun.
Phoenix, by the way, was the NBA10, being drafted on average behind the four teams already mentioned as well as the 76ers, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, and Heat. That the Suns bucked the trends of the six years of Omnifantasy history to even reach the Finals was a major win, but certainly their backers were hoping for more when they wound up big favorites after two games.
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention the Hawks, who came off the board NBA19, which is to say they were more or less treated as a team on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Reaching the Eastern Conference Finals and nabbing 30 late-round Omni points was a major win there.
NHL
Unlike the NBA, the NHL playoffs are typically littered with upsets, and late-round Omni picks can certainly make deep runs with some regularity. That was the case again in 2021, where none of the four division winners made it to the semifinals, and two of the four failed to get out of the first round to earn any Omni points at all.
That’s not exactly fair, though, because the final regular season standings didn’t closely match the Stanley Cup odds from midseason. Tampa Bay was NHL1 in Omnifantasy drafts and went on to repeat as champions despite finishing as the three seed in their division. Colorado was NHL2 and the top seed in their division, but they fell in a tough second-round matchup with the third-drafted NHL team, the Vegas Golden Knights. Vegas would go on to be a mild disappointment by falling in the semifinals to the underdog Montreal Canadiens (NHL8) after defeating what looked like the superior opponent in Colorado, but it’s not as if any of the top picks were major busts with context considered.
Having said that, five of the top seven NHL teams failed to reach the semifinals, and the Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL4) continuing their playoff woes with a first-round loss at the hands of eventual runners-up Montreal were the biggest bust. The New York Islanders (NHL13) were the fourth semifinalist, and the Canadiens and Islanders were the big later-round winners in this sport.
EURO
Also known as the biggest reason I didn’t write to you over the past two months. I wish I would have, if only to alert anyone who wasn’t closely following this tournament to how fun it is, but I was too busy watching soccer almost every day. These major international tournaments with the structure of group play followed by a knockout round are among my favorite events in all of sports, and every couple of years I’m a huge soccer guy for about a month even though I rarely follow the sport otherwise. In other words, a huge wanker.
EURO 2020 was fantastic. Rewinding to draft season, there were eight major favorites, which I’ll refer to as powerhouse countries (France, England, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Portugal), and then a pretty big ADP gap before Croatia came of the board as the EURO9 on average. As it played out, all of the powerhouses advanced, though perhaps my favorite story of the group stage was Hungary very nearly coming out of the Group of Death with France, Portugal, and Germany. After a very late loss to Portugal and an impressive tie with France, Hungary led Germany into the 84th minute before the Germans scored to stay in the tournament.
Alas, there were no major upsets in the group stage, but placement in the Round of 16 — based on finishes in groups — was interesting. I suppose in a perfectly equitable tournament, you’d have all eight of the favorites matched up with an underdog in the Round of 16, and the potential for all eight favorites to advance to the quarterfinals. But that’s not how it works, and we had two matchups between powerhouses (England beat Germany and Belgium beat Portugal) and two matchups between non-powerhouses (Ukraine beat Sweden and Denmark beat Wales) that ensured at least two later picks would advance and earn 20 Omnifantasy points.
What added to the drama was two major Round of 16 upsets. The Netherlands looked to have the most favorable draw of all Round of 16 participants, as they matched up with the Czech Republic and had the winner of Denmark-Wales on deck. They were the only powerhouse who could have reached the semifinals without the possibility of having to go through another powerhouse nation in the first two knockout rounds. Instead, they fell to the Czech Republic in the Round of 16, paving the way for Denmark to make a run to the semifinals when the Danes knocked off the Czechs.
The other upset was even bigger, as pre-tournament favorite France fell behind Switzerland early before rallying to score three times and take a 3-1 lead past the 80th minute. That match seemed all but over, except no one told the Swiss, who scored twice in the final 10 minutes of action to force extra time, and Switzerland were able to not just extend the game but eventually complete the upset victory in penalty kicks.
The Netherlands and France joined Germany and Portugal as powerhouses who lost in the Round of 16, meaning just four of the eight favorites actually reached the quarterfinals to score Omnifantasy points (Italy, England, Spain, and Belgium), and four later-round picks also notched at least 20 (Denmark, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Switzerland).
Switzerland would give Spain a run before falling in penalty kicks in the quarters, while Ukraine was no match for England, so Denmark — in many ways the story of the tournament — wound up the last remaining non-powerhouse. They very nearly made the final as well, falling to England in the semis in extra time. England’s lone goal in regulation was a Danish own goal, while their extra time goal was a questionable penalty; you could see scenarios where Denmark could have won 1-0 in regulation or reached the always-unpredictable penalty kicks.
Italy was able to beat Spain on penalty kicks, and then in the final England scored very early but gave up a second-half goal to eventually force penalty kicks, and Italy was once again up to the challenge to take home the overall 80 as the seventh-drafted EURO team on average.
With EURO 2020 running a year late due to the pandemic, we’re now one year away from the men’s World Cup, which will be part of Omnifantasy 2022, then we’ll have the women’s World Cup available to us in Omni 2023 and EURO will be back by 2024. We’re loaded with these fun tournaments for the next few years until a gap year in 2025.
ATP
Lastly, I want to mention tennis, as the first two majors have been completed. Novak Djokovic snapped Rafael Nadal’s streak at the French Open, and while we’ve been waiting on the old guard to age out, what we might be seeing is Nadal and Roger Federer falling off before Djokovic while the next wave of stars simultaneously isn’t quite ready, giving Djokovic room to be more dominant than ever. Djokovic has always been a huge favorite in tennis, but after winning both the French and Wimbledon, he already looks likely to have locked up the 80. At the US Open, he’ll have a shot to become just the third men’s tennis player to win the calendar year Grand Slam, something that hasn’t been accomplished on the men’s side since 1969. If he does that, next year’s Australian will only be relevant for Omnifantasy in the context of who can finish as the overall runner up.
Here’s where the standings sit:
Beyond Djokovic, there are a lot of potential ways this could play out, and if Djokovic takes the 8 for both the final two events, it will come down to who can make some semifinals or finals runs. Nadal is in a tough spot after not getting more than 3 in his signature event, the French, and then not playing in Wimbledon due to injury. Federer went pretty late in some drafts due to injury but got healthy enough to nab points in each of the first two events and could make a push.
Matteo Berrettini and Stefanos Tsitsipas are both in great position to take home points having both finished as runners-up at a major already. The five-way tie at 3 total points is first broken by best finish in any tournament — which favors Denis Shapovalov, Hubert Hurkacz, and Nadal — then would be broken by best finish in a non-point-scoring tournament, but Federer and Daniil Medvedev both have identical results through two tournaments so they are currently splitting the final 20 points.
Next up on the calendar is the US Open at the end of August before the Australian in January. On the wider Omnifantasy schedule, the next big events are the WNBA, MLB, MLS, and NASCAR playoffs this fall. Because fantasy football season is heating up, you probably won’t hear from me again for a bit. Until next time!
Another scorcher!
Another scorcher!