Omnifantasy expected points update
Looking at the risers and fallers in futures odds over the past two weeks
Hello! This is the first email of the new Omnifantasy newsletter. Many of you signed up manually, but I do want to apologize to anyone getting this who isn’t interested. Right off the top, there’s an unsubscribe button at bottom, and if you don’t want these emails, you’ll need to click it to remove yourself from the mailing list.
I’ve pulled in anyone who has joined a 2021 league and made at least one pick, so there shouldn’t be anyone receiving this who hasn’t at least been on the site. If you’re unsure whether you want to receive these infrequent updates, maybe read through this first email for a taste of what this will be.
Plans for the newsletter
This newsletter will likely only be used roughly monthly at the most frequent. I might send a couple emails in a month with several concurrent events, or perhaps an exciting stretch of results. Basically, for several years I’ve been emailing my original Omnifantasy league some updates about actual sports events results, our league, and what it all means. They’ve always seemed to enjoy it, and a few have noted it’s made the experience a lot easier to engage with.
It’s kind of a bummer that in newsletter form I can’t go into individual leagues and discuss how the standings align at given points of the calendar — tying points accrued and available teams left to give a good picture of who is in real contention. Maybe I can do like a “league of the month” or something and break down your league at the bottom of future emails if you’re interested. That obviously only services a few people.
The main discussion will instead be in relation to where teams were typically picked. If a top option from draft season ultimately fails, or a late-round upstart makes a run, those things have significant implications on who wins and loses every Omnifantasy league. And one of the best parts of Omnifantasy (in a year that isn’t 2020) is we start to get those results right away.
In early March, we’ll get the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 as well as the first golf event — THE PLAYERS Championship. Then the NCAA tournament kicks off on March 19, and college basketball will be the first event finalized come April 5, about a month and a half from now. The Champions League quarterfinals pick up one day later, and the NHL and NBA playoffs fire up just a bit after that. By July 18, we’ll have finalized results for six events: college basketball, Champion’s League, NHL, NBA, EURO (June-July), and golf (with its final major being the Open Championship from July 15-18). We’ll also have two of the four tennis events in the books.
There’s quite a lull after that on the calendar while the MLB, MLS, WNBA, and NASCAR regular seasons play out, and that’s always worked great for me as I focus on fantasy football draft season. We do get the third tennis major in August, and then we start to have events finalize again in October.
So over the next few months, I’ll be updating these results as they come in, commenting on where various teams were typically drafted in February, and what that means for Omnifantasy competitions. Even if you’re only loosely following an Omnifantasy league, this newsletter would presumably be a way to stay engaged with the sports world and what’s going on across it.
Expected points update — risers and fallers
For the third Saturday in a row, we updated the expected points found on the site. These are built through sims run on futures odds, so as those futures odds adjust, the expected points do, too. Here in draft season, I thought it would be fun to discuss some of the picks that have seen their expected points totals rise and fall over the past two weeks.
Champions League
The obvious starting point is the Champions League, where we’ve gotten our first results. Many Omnifantasy drafts are still ongoing, so knowing how teams fared in the first of two legs in their Round of 16 matchups is key. Here were the key highlights.
One of the biggest Round of 16 matchups was Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona, and PSG dominated the first leg 4-1. That makes them a massive favorite to advance, and their odds to win the tournament were slashed. PSG jumped into third in expected points behind only Man City and Bayern Munich, moving ahead of Liverpool, who also won their first leg comfortably (2-0). Barca fell to longshot status as they are unlikely to advance at this point. Early drafters who backed Lionel Messi’s squad in the middle rounds will probably be left with a zero on the scoreboard.
Other risers thanks to first leg wins included Chelsea (1-0 over Atletico Madrid), Real Madrid (1-0 over Atalanta), and Dortmund (3-2 over Sevilla). All three got those results in the away leg and will play host in March. Atletico Madrid and Sevilla saw their expected points fall considerably, while Atalanta’s were never particularly high to begin with.
The Jazz make a run in the NBA
Utah has been crushing of late, and their futures odds are starting to reflect it. At the beginning of draft season, the Lakers, Nets, Clippers, and Bucks were the top four teams, with a decent dip down to the 76ers as the fifth-best odds. The Jazz have now jumped ahead of Milwaukee into fourth, and their odds are not far off the Clippers.
The Lakers and Nets have solidified at the top, seeing their expected points improve over the past two weeks. The Nets were actually the second-biggest gainer behind Utah.
The biggest fallers included non-Jazz Western Conference contenders who are now looking up at a big three on their side of the bracket, most specifically the Nuggets and Mavericks. The Suns are one team moving the opposite direction in the Western Conference, as they gained 1.5 expected points over the past two weeks.
On the Eastern Conference side, the Celtics and Heat slipped more than the Bucks and 76ers, who were mostly stagnant behind Brooklyn. The odds now reflect essentially three favorites from each conference, making a clear top six.
Three-way tie atop the NHL odds
The Toronto Maple Leafs have notoriously not won the Stanley Cup since 1967, but they made a big move over the past two weeks and have pulled into a three-way tie for best odds alongside the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche. The Vegas Golden Knights slipped very slightly to a half rung below those three, while the Boston Bruins also saw a big jump and make it five favorites all within 2.6 expected points of each other atop the NHL standings.
Two other big risers just outside the top five were the Hurricanes and Oilers, while the Panthers and Islanders also gained ground a bit further back. The Wild might be the next team to make a jump — they are on a five-game winning streak and up 3-1 as I write this — but they still sit at 40/1 right now. The biggest faller was the Canadiens, who were once thought to be among the favorites but have gotten out to a slow start.
Michigan makes it a big three
The Wolverines beat Ohio State last Sunday, and they become the first school to threaten Gonzaga and Baylor, whose odds have also shortened as the clear college basketball favorites approaching March. Ohio State remains in fourth, but at just 10.1 expected points, they are well off Michigan’s 25.7 and the top two tied at 29.9.
Federer returning
Roger Federer has alluded on social media to returning to action in the next week or so, boosting his odds as he comes back from missing the past year. It appears he could be ready by the French Open in May, and definitely Wimbledon in late June where he’s more of a threat to win. That’s caused his odds to skyrocket, and his expected points have risen from 4.5 two weeks ago to 20.5 in today’s run of sims. He sits fifth, with Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal still the top dogs and Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev as the current best of the next generation still maintaining slightly better odds than Federer.
Tiger’s accident and golf risers
Tiger Woods suffered a significant broken leg in an auto accident, as well as other injuries. His odds have been taken off the board; we’ve left him in the player pool but estimated him as a significant longshot at this point, as details about his ability to play golf this year are scarce and obviously not the current focus.
A couple of other former major winners have started the year well and seen their odds improve over the past two weeks — Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth. Neither’s expected points gained substantially, but Koepka moved ahead of Bryson Dechambeau and Justin Thomas into fourth in expected points, while Spieth passed six golfers to rise to eighth in expected points.
Favorites emerge in the MLB
The top teams have started to crystallize as baseball approaches Opening Day, particularly in the National League where the Dodgers, Padres, and Mets all gained at least four expected points over the past two weeks thanks to shortening odds. Teams like the Reds, Brewers, Phillies, and Cubs have all lost between one and three expected points.
On the AL side, the Blue Jays made a significant leap into third behind the Yankees and White Sox, who both also gained ground. The Twins, Athletics, and Rays all lost ground, the Rays most substantially which makes some sense given they play in the AL East with both New York and Toronto. I’ve taken the Blue Jays in three drafts now, and I’m not gonna lie, I’m pretty stoked about their young core of ‘90s player’s kids — each of Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. look like key contributors this year in WAR projections. Vlad Sr., Dante Bichette Happens, and Craig Biggio’s kids all playing in the same infield is one of my favorite stories in sports right now.
WNBA free agency shakes things up
I can’t cop to knowing much about the WNBA, but the odds experienced a major shakeup with free agency taking place this month. The Las Vegas Aces took a small jump ahead of the Seattle Storm for the top spot, while the Minnesota Lynx rose considerably from the eighth-best odds to fifth in the 12-team league.
The Connecticut Sun were once tied with the Phoenix Mercury with the fifth-best odds, and I had a choice to make there in one draft. I took the Sun because they went farther in last year’s playoffs, but I immediately regret that decision — the Sun fell the furthest of any team in the league in this update. They now have the the eighth-best odds, while the Mercury rose and sit fourth.
That’s all I have for now. There were also some minor changes at the top in NASCAR, and some shuffling in the second tier of the NFL and college football, while the MLS remains anyone’s guess. We might have another email or two for you as Omnifantasy draft season winds down, or you might not hear from us until we have some results coming in. But here’s to a fun next few months in sports!