It’s been four months to the day since my last check-in, but I’m always a little slow on the Omnifantasy stuff during football season. I did want to take a minute to get at least one fall update in, though, particularly because we just got a cluster of results.
The weekend before last was probably the most exciting of the year for Omnifantasy, featuring three sports finalizing in two days. On Saturday, the Houston Astros clinched the World Series over the Philadelphia Phillies, on the same day as the MLS Cup, which Los Angeles FC won over Philadelphia Union. Rough day for Philly sports fans.
Then on Sunday, NASCAR ran its final race, with four drivers eligible to take down their championship, which was won by Joey Logano. One week earlier, the field officially whittled down from the final eight drivers to the final four, and Ross Chastain intentionally rode the wall to pass several drivers on the final turn to book his spot in the final four; he’d go on to finish second for Omnifantasy purposes. His move bumped Denny Hamlin, a much higher Omnifantasy pick, from the final four. I don’t know anything about NASCAR, and I drafted Hamlin in multiple Omni leagues, but even I have to admit that was one of the coolest things I’ve seen in the sports world all year.
We’re winding things down, but the biggest upcoming event on the schedule is the World Cup, set to kick off next week. We still have NFL and NCAAF to finish up, as well as tennis at the Australian Open in January. The top of the tennis leaderboard is extremely tight, as I’ll show below, after Novak Djokovic wasn’t able to play in the U.S. Open due to his vaccination status. His status for the Australian Open is up in the air, and he is one of four who could clinch the 80 for the Omnifantasy season with a win at the Australian Open. Formula One also has one final race, but those results are mostly finalized, with a tight race for second and some potential for a flip of the eighth and final point-scoring slot as the only real drama.
So there are still a few results to come, but with the stuff that’s gone final over the past few weeks, we’re definitely in the home stretch. If your team is leading or on the cusp, everything will be very impactful the rest of the way. If your team is further down the standings, we’re only a couple months away from next year’s Omnifantasy draft season kicking off in February. Maybe start your research now so you do a little better next time.
Let’s jump into a recap of all the happenings since the last newsletter update. At our last update, NCAAB, Champions League, NBA, NHL, USFL, and PGA had all been finalized. This update includes WNBA, MLB, MLS, NASCAR, F1, and ATP (tennis).
I’ll reference Average Drafted Position (ADP) from the 12 identical Omnifantasy Cup drafts as a barometer of how the various picks were viewed back in Omni draft season; there’s always some variation, but you don’t see picks that were high on average fall way to the later rounds, and so there are obvious implications on the impact of the results relative to how early in drafts those picks often went.
As for the 12-league Omnifantasy Cup — the overall standings can be viewed at this link, which can also be found on the main page at omnifantasy.com. We gave a shoutout to Evan from League 7 in that last update for his massive start, and he is still the current overall leader, but it has gotten extremely tight at the top.
WNBA
There were two clear favorites in WNBA, going 1.2 picks apart in Omni Cup ADP. That duo wound up meeting in the final.
The second of the two, drafted 15.6 overall on average, was the Las Vegas Aces, WNBA’s eventual champion. A second-round pick on average, they held their own as one of the preseason favorites in taking down their first WNBA championship. The Connecticut Sun, with an ADP of 14.4, were the runners-up.
Additionally, both semifinalists were the WNBA3 (Seattle Storm) and WNBA4 (Chicago Sky) on average. Being only a 12-team league, there’s definitely potential for the favorites to be somewhat known in advance for the WNBA. But in our first season using WNBA in 2021, the winners were the fourth-highest drafted WNBA team, while the runners-up were drafted fifth on average. The team drafted WNBA3 didn’t even make the playoffs to earn any Omni points, and then WNBA1 lost in the quarterfinals, earning just 20 Omnifantasy points.
So through two years of results, WNBA was pretty unpredictable in the first year, then went pretty much to expectation in Year 2. The four quarterfinalists this year were WNBA5, WNBA7, WNBA8, and WNBA10, with the one team not finishing top eight and thus not earning points from a higher draft slot being the Minnesota Lynx at WNBA6.
MLB
The Houston Astros (MLB2) were a chalk team, but the runner-up Philadelphia Phillies (MLB16) were a major surprise. They were the latest average drafted MLB team among 15 teams that were actually selected in all 12 drafts.
Interestingly, the team ahead of them in ADP that wasn’t selected in all 12 was the Cleveland Guardians (MLB15), who were actually only taken in one Omni Cup draft but did finish with 20 points after advancing past the Wild Card Round. The team just behind Philadelphia, the Seattle Mariners (MLB17), were selected in 10 of 12 Omni leagues and also earned 20 points. So there was a hot spot among the later MLB options where points were very much available for drafters.
The other four point-scoring spots were taken by teams with reasonably solid expectations. The Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB1) lost in their first playoff series, securing a slightly disappointing 20. The New York Yankees (MLB3) notched 30. And then the MLB8 and MLB9, the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves, took the other 30 and 20. The disappointing zeroes in there included the Chicago White Sox (MLB4), and then the other three Wild Card Round losers — the New York Mets (MLB5), Toronto Blue Jays (MLB6), and Tampa Bay Rays (MLB7).
MLS
MLS is notoriously difficult to predict, but this year, the 80 points went to the top-drafted Los Angeles FC. It’s not only the first time in Omnifantasy history that the top-drafted MLS team has won the 80, it’s the first time any team drafted in the top four has.
On one hand, it’s perhaps to be expected that as gambling’s reach grows, odds on these more niche domestic leagues might improve. On the other, the rest of the MLS results were wild. Of the 28 teams in MLS, 21 were drafted in at least one Omnifantasy Cup draft. Three of the eight point-scoring teams came from the seven that weren’t drafted anywhere, and a fourth, Austin FC (MLS20), was drafted in just three of the 12 leagues.
Austin took home 30 as a semifinalist, and those three undrafted darkhorses all fell in the quarterfinals for just 20 points. The other quarterfinalist, LA Galaxy, was MLS11, so not a top pick either.
The final two point-scoring teams — the runner-up Philadelphia Union (MLS5) and other semifinalist New York City FC (MLS3) — were drafted among the top five favorites for this sport, though. So three of the top five wound up as final four teams, and then the other five point-scorers mostly came out of nowhere, which mostly benefitted drafters willing to take shots on the favorites in this sport and worked against anyone waiting until the later rounds, since the upstarts who did hit were often undrafted.
NASCAR
One of the big reasons I like doing these reviews is I’ve written about the past results dating back several years, but sports evolve. While I do think some of what I’ve talked before about how the odds can be viewed differently across different sports is legitimate signal in the longer term, there is some noise to those trends as well where certain sports might be in eras of stability, so to speak.
NASCAR is a sport where the top finishers have overwhelmingly come from the top seven or eight drivers each season, not necessarily from options drafted outside the top 10 best odds. But as I noted in the intro, Ross Chastain (NASCAR17) kind of came out of nowhere just to reach the final eight, then had a bold move in the last race of that segment to qualify for the Championship Four, then finished runner up. He was drafted in just one Omnifantasy Cup league (shoutout Jake Gaz) and was a true longshot.
On top of Chastain, another of the Championship Four drivers, Christopher Bell (NASCAR13), came from the late rounds, and a final eight driver who notched 20 points, Chase Briscoe (NASCAR18), was drafted in just three Omni Cup leagues.
The other five point-scorers were all top-eight NASCAR picks, but the old guard was notably lightly represented in that group. Of the top eight who didn’t score points, Kyle Larson (NASCAR1), last year’s champion was the biggest surprise, and he’s one of the sport’s newer top names. But the other two were old hats Martin Truex, Jr. (NASCAR5) and Kyle Busch (NASCAR6), while Kevin Harvick (NASCAR9) and Brad Keselowski (NASCAR11) also failed to reach the points as former top drivers.
Joey Logano (NASCAR8) has been around as a top pick for years, though, and he wound up winning the title. And Denny Hamlin (NASCAR3), another guy who has been in that top seven or eight every draft season pretty much since Omnifantasy started, finished with 20 as well. The other point-scorers — Chase Elliott (NASCAR2), William Byron (NASCAR4), and Ryan Blaney (NASCAR7) — are more recent upstarts that haven’t had these kinds of strong preseason odds for many years, and I know I for one faded them on the idea they were maybe being overdrafted before they’d made their mark.
But they were there, and with guys like Chastain, Bell, and Briscoe also reaching the final eight, NASCAR’s transition to a new crop of top drivers and potentially a more wide open chase over the next few seasons definitely feels underway if not already complete.
ATP
Tennis isn’t yet finalized, but it’s a fascinating situation with three of the four events completed. This time last year, Novak Djokovic had already locked up the 80 points, but this year, it is wide open. Here’s everyone who has earned at least two “tennis points” toward the final standings.
Rafael Nadal (ATP3) currently holds the top spot, but everyone’s favorite sleeper Carlos Alcaraz (ATP8) made good on the hype with a US Open win and has moved right behind Nadal.
One of the big questions this draft season was how the sport would operate with both Novak Djokovic’s (ATP1) vaccination status and the Russian tennis players’ eligibility, most notably related to Daniil Medvedev (ATP2). Both those top-two drafted options have missed one of three tournaments so far, though Djokovic won Wimbledon, one of the two he played, while Medvedev has had disappointing results in his two tournaments.
Nadal, Alcaraz, Djokovic, or darkhorse Casper Ruud (ATP16) could all clinch the 80 points if any of them were to win the Australian Open in January. Even Nick Kyrgios (undrafted) could clinch the 80 if he won the Australian Open and none of the four ahead of him finished runner up.
Other than Medvedev, among the disappointments so far are ATP4 Stefanos Tsitsipas, ATP5 Alexander Zverev, ATP6 Dominic Thiem, and ATP7 Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Jannik Sinner (ATP10), Cameron Norrie (ATP15), and Frances Tiafoe (undrafted), join Ruud and Kyrgios as later or undrafted options who currently sit in point-scoring position.
There’s a five-way tie right now for the seventh and eighth spots, and the first tiebreaker is best finish in any individual event, which bumps Andrey Rublev (ATP11) from that group, then on down for each point-scoring event. If the tie is due to multiple players having the same series of results, as in this case where the other four all scored 3 in one tournament and 1 in another, then their results in non-point scoring events are considered. That’s how Norrie and Tiafoe wind up as the final two 20-point earners as things sit.
Formula One
I spent a great deal of time in the last update breaking down how predictable Formula One had been, and true to form, the standings have not changed in four months, save for what is now a tie for second place. With the final race of the season coming this weekend, that tie will be broken. There’s also an outside shot the eighth place driver will get replaced in the final race. I’ll have the results finalized for this sport sometime next week.
Other Sports
NFL and NCAAF are obviously well underway, and honestly I just don’t really have the time to dig into all the movement there, and I also wanted to note the odds are not updated, so the “Expected Points” column on the Standings page is pretty inaccurate.
Just firing from the hip, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs were the top two NFL teams drafted, and both are obviously still in fine position. The Los Angeles Rams were the third-drafted team, and are not, and neither are the Green Bay Packers, the fifth-drafted team.
The top two teams in the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings, were NFL16 and NFL18, respectively. The Miami Dolphins were NFL25 and drafted in just four leagues, as another team with potential to be a huge later-round hit.
A couple other NFC teams with potential to make noise, the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, were higher picks at NFL4 and NFL6.
For NCAAF, Alabama was the top pick, and they are not likely to make the CFP. Georgia and Ohio State, the NCAAF2 and NCAAF3, are in good position. Michigan was NCAAF7 and has a shot to get there if they beat Ohio State. Neither TCU or Tennessee were drafted in any Omnifantasy Cup leagues, while USC and Clemson were NCAAF5 and NCAAF4 and are both one-loss teams currently in the top 10 that don’t have strong paths to the CFP but could make an appearance, and at least appear to have a strong shot at 20 Omnifantasy points, like Alabama also does.
So there’s a bit of a dynamic where the top five picks are all in relatively good position to earn at least some points, and also there are a couple teams that were completely undrafted that have a shot as well.
As for World Cup, the odds haven’t shifted massively, but we drafted before qualification had finalized (due to COVID and the November start), so some nations had low odds because they weren’t even likely to get there. The biggest riser was probably Portugal, who was pitted in a four-nation playoff with Italy, who were considered the stronger team. But Italy, WC8 in draft season, lost in their first matchup to North Macedonia, 1-0, and the Portugal-Italy do-or-die match never even materialized. Italy takes zero Omni points, while Portugal (WC10) advanced, but has only moved up to the eighth-strongest odds.
Argentina, WC6 during draft season, has seen their odds skyrocket to second overall, so they are another big riser on the eve of the tournament.
Omnifantasy Cup Update
Evan still leads the Omni Cup with 500 points on the nose, but contenders loom in Anthony with 440, and packeRanalytics with 410, as well as several drafters in the 300s who could still together multiple strong results from the remaining sports to reach the 500 plateau.
The way things look right now, the current ATP and F1 points are already inputted, and with F1 not expected to change much if at all, but maybe some slight shuffling expected in tennis, those won’t have a major impact. What will decide this is World Cup, NCAAF, and NFL, where no points at all have been awarded, and three more 80s, three more 50s, etc. will be thrown onto the pile.
Here’s where Evan’s roster stands.
His patriotic USA pick isn’t a favorite in the World Cup, and while Utah may have a shot to finish in the top eight of the final AP poll, they are looking at 20 at best. He does have a couple options to gain points in the NFL if the Los Angeles Chargers or Tampa Bay Buccaneers make a run, and also Carlos Alcaraz is one of those four tennis players who could take the 80. As it sits, Alcaraz is counting for 50 points, so that could be a net gain of 30 (but also a net loss of 20 pretty easily if he falls behind Djokovic or Ruud).
In other words, it’s not out of the question that Evan could finish with 480 even as he sits at 500 right now. That would require Alcaraz to have a poor Australian Open showing, someone to pass him, and also all of USA, Utah, the Chargers, and the Bucs to score zero points. It’s also not out of the question Evan could rise to 550, 600, or higher if a few things break his way.
Here is Anthony’s team, his closest competition at the moment:
Anthony crushed NASCAR with both Joey Logano and Christopher Bell in the Championship Four, and took home 110 points from that event as a result. He’s sitting on the Kansas City Chiefs as his ace in the hole, plus has Portugal as a solid World Cup option, though his NCAAF pick is dead.
And packeRanalytics, at 410 points:
I hadn’t looked at this roster yet, but here’s an example of a team that probably doesn’t have the juice to make a real push. Either of Denmark or Uruguay could surprise, and the Green Bay Packers, despite all their struggles, still have Aaron Rodgers. But the Indianapolis Colts and Wisconsin in NCAAF are both probably out of contention for points at this stage, barring something epic from the Colts, and Rafael Nadal is also already counting for 80 points and can only lose ground if he doesn’t outlast the other top ATP contenders in the Australian Open.
This roster probably needs nearly all three of Nadal holding his position, the Packers making a deep run and maybe winning it all, and to also get points out of both Denmark and Uruguay, with one of those nations potentially making a deep run. (Still an incredible accomplishment to be in third and have life in this 144-person contest.)
That’s all for today. I’m not going to dig in much more, but I’m quite certain there are some more contenders. The next bunch of rosters on the Omnifantasy Cup leaderboard includes five between 360 and 390 points, and 16 more who have hit at least 300. Somebody in that group has to have a legit chance to take down the 80s in all three of World Cup, NCAAF, and NFL, and doing so would net a huge 240 points that could determine the result of the first ever Omnifantasy Cup.
I myself have nine point-scorers already, and a legit shot to have all of my first 10 picks in the points, something I can’t imagine I’ve ever done. But I sit at just 260 after racking up a bunch of 20s and 30s. It’s all about those championships!
Until next time!